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A Bullish Outlook for Real Estate?

Posted by Leslie Eskildsen on Wednesday, November 19th, 2008 at 9:53am.

Everyone knows it's been a tough couple of years in the Real Estate market, not only in Orange County, but all over the country.  Foreclosures currently account for about 40% of the homes being sold in Orange County, and the median price for homes sold in the OC in October was $420,000 - down almost 27% from October of 2007.

Record Increase in Homes Sold

Despite the pain that many are experiencing, there are signs that a brighter picture might be around the corner.  Dataquick reported yesterday that 2,833  homes sold in Orange County in October, an increase of 66.6% from the same month in 2007.  While the median price may have dropped, it's valuable to remember that the median price is strongly influenced by the mix of homes sold in different price ranges.  Bank Owned homes make up 40% of the transactions, and about half the homes sold in October were priced at under $400,000.


Bullish Prediction

Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate predicts minor continued price drops in 2009, followed by a small increase in 2010 and "rapid appreciation" in 2011.  In his own words as quoted in the Orange County Register:


“The past couple of years we have witnessed giant swings in the stock market, oil prices and housing. For the most part, the majority of consumers are trending to jump in unison. There will be more residential housing units that sell next year compared to this year, so the probability that we hit bottom in pricing next year is great. In 2010, we will most likely appreciate a bit, while many consumers wait to hear the news that the bottom was already reached. Remember, nobody is ringing a bell to indicate when we hit bottom; instead, economists and analysts will be able to inform the public at large that a bottom was reached many months later, after it occurs. In 2011, with all of the pent up demand and the realization that Orange County is undervalued, a wave of demand will be unleashed on the market and we will return to rapid appreciation.â€

No one can predict where a market will peak or bottom, but there are signs that the inevitable turnaround is not as far away as some might think. 

1 Response to "A Bullish Outlook for Real Estate?"

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Posted on Thursday, November 20th, 2008 at 10:00 AM.


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